Washington Post Monday, September 26, 2005; Page A23
By
Jackson Diehl
Thanks to
the United Nations General Assembly, the presidents of three big South American
countries visited the United
States
simultaneously this month. Two are close U.S. allies
who, through the diligent pursuit of free-market policies, have overseen
impressive economic growth and a reduction of poverty in their nations. The
other is a self-declared enemy of Washington who,
despite enjoying an extraordinary bonanza of oil revenue, has managed to
increase the poor population in his country by a quarter.
Chances are you heard about only
one of these guys. Hugo Chavez, the "revolutionary" president of Venezuela, cut a
flamboyant swath through New York,
touring Harlem and the Bronx,
chatting with Ted Koppel, basking in the applause of the General Assembly for
his hyperbolic denunciations of American "imperialism" and capitalism.
By
contrast, Alvaro Uribe of Colombia and
Alejandro Toledo of Peru
passed through New York
and Washington
with barely a ripple. Not only that, they didn't really want to be noticed. True,
both agreed to meet with editors and reporters of The Post. But neither one was
willing to speak publicly about the biggest development in Latin
America in years. That is, of course, the
increasingly conspicuous emergence of Chavez as the political and ideological
successor to Fidel Castro, and his aggressive attempt to succeed where Castro
failed in constructing an anti-American alliance.
It's not
that Uribe and Toledo, like the left-wing
leaders of Brazil
and Argentina,
secretly sympathize with Chavez: They don't. Toledo, once a victim of Alberto Fujimori's Peruvian dictatorship-in-the-shape-of-democracy,
can hardly admire Chavez's similar destruction of Venezuela's
political freedom. Uribe fights a leftist guerrilla
movement created with Castro's help decades ago and now backed by Chavez, who
granted asylum and even citizenship to one of its top leaders.
Still, Uribe refused to say anything for publication about Chavez.
Toledo
doggedly limited himself to the new formula of the Organization of American
States: "It's not enough to be elected democratically; it's also indispensable
to govern democratically." He also let slip: "If I had as much money
from oil as President Chavez, the story would be different."
What's
striking about all this is not Chavez's New York antics --
which were copied almost exactly from U.N. appearances by Castro -- but the
silence and seeming demoralization of those Latin leaders who have stuck with
the "Washington
consensus" of free markets and democratic politics. By any reasonable
measure, both Uribe and Toledo have succeeded: Their
economies are growing rapidly, exports and foreign investment are way up, and
extreme poverty is down.
In Peru
and Colombia, the number of people living on less than $2 a day under Toledo
and Uribe stands at 54 and 52 percent, respectively. In
Chavez's Venezuela,
the rate has risen from 43 percent in 1999, the year he took office, to 53
percent last year, according to government statistics. During this same period
Venezuelan oil revenue, which makes up most of the government's income, roughly
doubled. Yet Chavez's claim to be the champion of Latin
America's dispossessed goes unchallenged by his peers.
How could
this be? Partly, of course, Chavez successfully mines the populism and
anti-Americanism that is a perpetual undercurrent in Latin American politics
and that is largely blind to results. He's a better politician than the sober,
stern Uribe, and certainly more so than Toledo, whose chronically unpresidential (if harmless) behavior has given him the
lowest popularity rating of any Latin leader.
But Toledo's muttered aside also
points to a critical difference: Chavez is literally buying the support of his
neighbors. With each uptick in oil prices, his
giveaways -- once limited to Cuba --
increase. He provides subsidized oil for 13 Caribbean
countries and promises Brazil
a new refinery; he bought $538 million of Argentina's
crushing foreign debt. He filled in for Ecuador, a fellow
oil producer, when it was unable to export for a few days. A samba school in Rio de Janeiro won his
patronage. In short, anyone in Latin
America seeking a handout these days looks to Caracas.
That's why
when Uribe and Toledo did speak about Venezuela, to their
contacts in Congress and the Bush administration, the message was a simple one:
Stop talking about Chavez, and start competing with him. Chavez-bashing,
whether by Pat Robertson or Donald Rumsfeld, only sends his poll numbers soaring; meanwhile, say the
Latin presidents, hard-pressed leaders are wondering if Washington has
anything that matches Chavez's largesse. The opportunities to compete are
readily available. There is, for example, an Andean free-trade agreement with
the United States
that the two presidents would like to wrap up by the end of October.
Their
pitch would be more convincing if they were willing to stand up against
Chavez's breach of democratic norms and interference in other countries, both
violations of regional charters. But they also have a point: The Bush
administration would have a lot more impact if it behaved as if the United States, rather
than Venezuela,
was the hemisphere's economic leader.